Congress is only a week old, and already three Republican House members and four Republican senators have announced their departure from Congress in the next election. No Democrats have made similar announcements. (The only thing that comes close is the run of Democrats who are leaving Congress to join the new administration, but that's a different matter.)
Rep. Jerry Moran (R-KS) is running for the Senate; Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN) is running for governor, and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) is retiring. Added to this are senators Bond (MO), Brownback (KS), Martinez (FL), and Voinovich (OH). Other than Voinovich and perhaps Bond, none of these are particularly superannuated.
One of the core tenants of the "strategic politicians" theory of elections is that the behavior of the most informed and "interested" political actors well ahead of an election is what most determines the general contours of the outcomes. By conventional analysis, 2010 should be a relatively good year for Republicans, since it will be the off-year election with a Democratic presidents. And, the year has just begun --- lots more can happen. However, the early returns suggest that 2010 is considered to be a tough year for Republicans, and those in the know are beginning to get out now.
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